It has been almost six months since Huawei's particular nightmare began , a Turkish-headed company of the US-China trade war. His inclusion in the 'Entity List' led to a veto that left Huawei unable to work with US companies such as Google , and that posed serious difficulties for the global operation of the manufacturer.
The veto, however, was never applied. The United States has just granted the third consecutive truce to Huawei , and with it it continues to allow US companies to work with Huawei in certain scenarios. The situation, however, is tense in segments such as that of its mobile division: the Mate 30 Pro has been the first terminal of Huawei that does not include Google services and applications, and this new truce does not make the thing relax: it may the firm's future terminals - with the Huawei P40 and P40 Pro at the helm - end up following this path as well , something that could seriously compromise its sales outside of China.
A very fair truce
The rumors revealed days before the decision pointed to an extension of the six-month truce , but the official statement has made it clear that the truce will have the same duration as the previous ones, 90 days. That means that on February 17, 2020 we will face the same issue as the previous two times: will the United States again grant another commercial truce to Huawei?
That truce, in fact, is limited . The United States Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, explained that this extension "will allow operators to continue serving customers in some of the most remote areas of the United States that would otherwise be left in the dark."
That's right: Huawei's telecommunications equipment has been widely used in networks in rural regions. Small local operators such as Eastern Oregon Telecom, which serves 4,000 customers in small communities and isolated farms, would be in serious trouble if the veto were applied . Replacing that infrastructure with equipment from another company such as ZTE would cost $ 1 billion according to some estimates from the Rural Wireless Association.
The implications, however, go far beyond the American rural environment, and many look at the future of their mobile phones rather than their communications equipment. The shadows plan on Google , whose mobile platform has been key for Huawei during all these years.
The software matters
In fact we have seen how doubts about Huawei have begun to arise after the launch of Mate 30 Pro, a terminal with outstanding hardware that is constrained by a disturbing software proposal : it is the first terminal of the manufacturer that is sold based on Android but without the services and applications of Google.
That, as the partners who have tried it , is a serious problem. We are already very accustomed to being able to install applications with Google Play or to use services such as YouTube, Gmail or Google Maps in a transparent way on our mobiles, but that cannot be done in the Mate 30 Pro . Not at least initially, because there are methods that gave informal access to Google services and applications.
These methods are not especially accessible to the vast majority of end users, who despite the attractions of the Mate 30 Pro may feel frightened, and rightly so . Why buy a terminal that does not offer me that comfort when there are valid alternatives that do?
That is the question to which Huawei must give a convincing answer. It is true that we have the Huawei AppGallery to install applications, but there is neither Facebook nor Gmail, for example . It is expected that at some point these and other very popular tools such as WhatsApp, YouTube or Instagram can be installed from this application store, but for now that is not possible.
The problem is not so much that Huawei has decided to make that software bet with the Mate 30 Pro, a super high-end terminal (it has just been put up for sale in Spain for 1,099 euros ). The problem is that Google services and applications stop appearing in their future terminals .
What if all Huawei mobile futures were like the Mate 30 Pro in the software section?
The truce raises that option for Huawei: it should be able to offer its terminals with Android 10 (Android Q) in full, but it has not done so with the Mate 30 Pro and may not do so with important terminals in the coming months such as the Huawei P40 and the Huawei P40 Pro that will appear predictably in February or March 2019.
The new truce has an end date on February 16, 2020, which means that Huawei will not be covered during the dates of a key event such as the Mobile World Congress 2020 that will be held from February 24 to 27 next year.
You may not even make an announcement of the P40 / P40 Pro, but whether you do it or not, will you risk raising such popular terminals as these in the same way you have marketed the Mate 30 Pro?
It is difficult to know, but of course there are future options such as using HarmonyOS and Android at the same time in those terminals . Dual boot is a long-rumored option , and although it seems difficult to assume it could be a valid compromise alternative until a compromised situation for Huawei is clarified.
The truth is that the doubts that the Mate 30 Pro has already raised in the software field would be much greater if Huawei ends up making the same bet on all the mobiles that it will add to its catalog in the future.
The company has already mentioned in the past that they could "immediately go to HarmonyOS if they could not use Android, and in the official statement after the announcement of the new truce indicated that such extension" will not, in any case, have a substantial impact on the Huawei business . "
It is true that it has not had much impact the past few months, but all Huawei terminals maintained the commitment to the full Google platform. If Huawei dispenses with Google services and applications as it has done with the Mate 30 Pro, the impact may exist and be substantial .
The new truce and the latest events do not help to clarify the uncertainty , and we only hope that the commercial war will be resolved and everything will return to normal. There seems to be signs of it , but certainly not certainties.
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